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BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The current CDC best estimate of COVID-19 mortality rate is actually is ~0.2%, on the order of the flu, NOT 3.4%.
The numbers:
From the CDC, 35% of infections are asymptomatic.
This means that 65% of infections are symptomatic (let’s call this ‘iS’ for ‘Symptomatic Infection Rate’).
CDC best estimate of the Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate from COVID-19 is 0.4% (sCFR).
Therefore, sCFR x iS should yield the iCFR, or Infected Case Fatality Rate, or:
0.004 x 0.65 = 0.0026 (or 0.26%) iCFR
(Thanks to @Ethical Skeptic for pointing this out. Note, he expresses the ratio differently, but the result is the same.)
Since the deaths are being exaggerated by approximately 25%, a more accurate iCFR would be 75% of the value above, or 0.0026 x 0.75 = 0.002 (or 0.2%)
In my first article on the subject 7 weeks ago, I did a rough comparison of COVID-19 to the flu, pointing that:
The estimated median incidence of the flu, again per the CDC, for 2010 thru 2016 is 8.3% of the population, which makes the mortality rate (deaths by infection/total infections) on the order of 0.2%.
The mortality rate from CoVid-19 is probably on the order of that of the flu, or even less. The deaths from CoVid-19 are being inflated because in NYC, in particular, and worldwide in general, a person who is tested positive for the virus at the time of death, is being counted as a CoVid-19 death, even if the person had a number of comorbid factors, of which CoVid-19 was not actually the principal cause of death. In other words, if I am asymptomatic for CoVid-19, but get hit by a car crossing the street, and test positive for CoVid-19 postmortem, my death is being counted as a CoVid-19 death, wherein in fact, the actual cause of my death was the car accident, not the CoVid-19! Exaggerating data only does more harm than good.
My aim in highlighting this is not to toot my own horn, but rather to illustrate that this info was already available nearly two months ago. In fact, Professor John P. A. Ioannidis bought this to attention in mid-March, see the link in “Exaggerating data” above. Had society at large, and people in particular, been more thoughtful, more reflective, a little more analytical, less trusting of “experts” and politicians, perhaps if they had listened to the wise old sage George Carlin, we might have avoided the ensuing economic disaster we have created for ourselves.
In the intervening weeks, I’ve posted several articles detailing how the initial models were incorrect.
Today there are yet several more articles, Twitter posts, and a report from the CDC, which details the current best estimate of the CDC COVID-19 mortality rate. Daniel Horowitz’s article does a good job of breaking the numbers down even further than I did above. Here is a link to the blow-up of the slide shown in the @EthicalSkeptic Twitter post. Here is an article discussing the inflated death numbers by Brian C. Joondeph, MD. Here is one by Carol Brown discussing misleading stats.
I seriously doubt this info will get any traction in the media… As Mr. Horowitz points out:
We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
And I would add, will anyone be held accountable?
I truly hope, and pray, that we collectively learn from this mess. To quote Merlin, in Excalibur, "For it is the doom of men that they forget."
Endnote & Postscript
This was my third article on LinkedIn, originally published on May 26, 2020 and republished here on February 1, 2021.
When I wrote this in May, the link to the CDC planning factors (“report from the CDC”) showed numbers current then. I have found out that the CDC buries the previous reports somewhere in their archives, which I have not found, and writes the current report onto same link. Thus, as you are reading this, if you access that report, you’ll see the report current for the date you do so.
As with my first two articles, it is interesting rereading this in light of the events that have transpired in the intervening 10 months.
Namaste,
Mark Stansell
Update April 24, 2021
Buried in my files I found the COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios for the end on April and June 2020, which I include below. I've also included those from the end of March 2021.
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